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Under 2.5 Goals Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 22 April 2023

Wed 19 Thu 20 Fri 21 Sat 22 Sun 23 Mon 24 Tue 25

Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.

20 fixtures cleared the bar on Saturday 22 April 2023. Le Havre vs Quevilly sits top on 77% in the Ligue 2. The shortlist runs from 77% down to 67%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans six different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 2 · France 77%

✓ Under 2.5 77% ✓ BTTS No 70% ✓ Le Havre Clean Sheet 55%

Serie B · Italy 76%

Under 2.5 76% BTTS No 67%

Super League 1 · Greece 75%

✓ Under 2.5 75% BTTS No 62%

Championship · England 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 67% Millwall Clean Sheet 53%

Ligue 2 · France 74%

Under 2.5 74% BTTS No 66%

Championship · England 73%

Under 2.5 73% BTTS No 68% Bristol City Clean Sheet 56%

League Two · England 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 62%

Super League 1 · Greece 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 60%

Veikkausliiga · Finland 71%

Under 2.5 71% BTTS No 61%

#10

Serie B · Italy 71%

✓ Under 2.5 71% ✓ BTTS No 64%

#11

Ligue 2 · France 70%

✓ Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 62%

#12

League One · England 70%

Under 2.5 70% BTTS No 66% Cheltenham Clean Sheet 54%

#13

Thai League 1 · Thailand 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 62%

#14

League Two · England 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#15

Serie B · Italy 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 61%

#16

Championship · England 69%

✓ Under 2.5 69% ✓ BTTS No 61%

#17

La Liga · Spain 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 63%

#18

Primeira Liga · Portugal 68%

Under 2.5 68% BTTS No 66% Famalicao Clean Sheet 55%

#19

Jupiler Pro League · Belgium 67%

✓ Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 61%

#20

Canadian Premier League · Canada 67%

Under 2.5 67% BTTS No 60%

Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

Related markets

Low Scoring Both Teams to Score – No Over 2.5 Goals

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Under 2.5 Goals — common questions

What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?

Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 22 April 2023?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Le Havre vs Quevilly at 77% under 2.5 probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.