Dijon 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 38%, yet in-form Bastia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dijon vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dijon at Stade Gaston-Gérard this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Gaston-Gérard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Dijon are significantly better at Stade Gaston-Gérard than their overall form suggests.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bastia have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bastia are 0.80 PPG clear of Dijon in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dijon, 1 for Bastia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 49% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 51% | Bastia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.04 xG and Bastia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.836 / defence 0.858 | Bastia attack 0.961 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.067. Data: 69 Dijon games / 69 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 38% | Draw 32% | Bastia 30%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Bastia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bastia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 20% | Bastia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 38% | Draw 32% | Bastia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Dijon 1.04 / Bastia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.836 / def 0.858 | Bastia attack 0.961 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Dijon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bastia xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Bastia kick off?
Dijon vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Bastia?
Dijon 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Dijon vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Bastia part of?
Dijon vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 38% chance of winning, Bastia a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dijon and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 1 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Dijon and Bastia in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Bastia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dijon's attack at 0.84x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.96x) against Dijon's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.17
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Dijon xG
Total xG
1.92
0.88
Bastia xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Dijon and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Dijon and 0.88 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dijon's recent record stands at 20W 17D 32L from 69 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 25W 22D 22L across 69 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Dijon against 1.41 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dijon have managed 14W 8D 12L from 34 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 10W 8D 16L across 34 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.10 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Bastia in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 20W 17D 32L in their last 69 games (1.12 PPG), while Bastia have gone 25W 22D 22L in their last 69 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Bastia away?
Dijon's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.47 PPG; Bastia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Dijon or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bastia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Dijon 1-1 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 38%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Dijon) and 41% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Dijon have failed to score in 35% of games; Bastia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Dijon's recent matches and 47% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Dijon's recent games and 41% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Bastia tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bastia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.04 xG and Bastia 0.88 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Bastia attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 38% | Draw 32% | Bastia 30%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 51%, Bastia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.12 PPG, Bastia 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.