Famalicao 3-2 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 22 April 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Famalicao have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Maritimo (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Maritimo's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Famalicao's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Famalicao 1W, Maritimo 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 50% versus Maritimo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 53% | Maritimo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.40 xG and Maritimo 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.831 / defence 0.838 | Maritimo attack 0.680 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.044. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Famalicao games / 62 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 57% | Draw 27% | Maritimo 16%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Maritimo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Maritimo's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Maritimo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 57% | Draw 27% | Maritimo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 34% | xG Famalicao 1.40 / Maritimo 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.831 / def 0.838 | Maritimo attack 0.680 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Maritimo xG
34%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Maritimo kick off?
Famalicao vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Famalicao 3 - 2 Maritimo.
Where is Famalicao vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Maritimo part of?
Famalicao vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 57% chance of winning, Maritimo a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Famalicao and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Maritimo?
Record (3 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 2 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Famalicao and Maritimo in?
Famalicao (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Maritimo (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.83) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.68x) against Famalicao's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 2-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.64
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.00
0.59
Maritimo xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
4%
25.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.59 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 21W 15D 26L from 62 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 32L across 62 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Famalicao against 0.97 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 13W 8D 10L from 31 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 6W 7D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.02 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Maritimo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 21W 15D 26L in their last 62 games (1.26 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 15W 15D 32L in their last 62 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Maritimo away?
Famalicao's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.52 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Famalicao
2
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 2, Maritimo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Famalicao 3-2 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Maritimo?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 45%, Maritimo 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Famalicao) and 52% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 32% of games; Maritimo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Famalicao's recent matches and 55% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Famalicao's recent games and 52% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Maritimo tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Maritimo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Maritimo 3-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.40 xG and Maritimo 0.59 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Maritimo outscored their 0.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.83 / defence 0.84 against Maritimo attack 0.68 / defence 1.30, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 57% | Draw 27% | Maritimo 16%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 53%, Maritimo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.26 PPG, Maritimo 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Maritimo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.