Under 2.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest under 2.5 probability — Saturday 4 December 2021
Under 2.5 goals lands when a match produces 2 goals or fewer. Our prediction model sums the probability of every scoreline with 2 goals or fewer — 0–0, 1–0, 1–1, 2–0 and their mirror images. Only fixtures with 55%+ probability are shown.
20 matches cleared our threshold on Saturday 4 December 2021. The strongest reading belongs to Bristol City vs Derby at 81% in the Championship. The shortlist runs from 81% down to 62%, so the depth of the card matters as much as the headline pick.
Championship supplies four of the top 10, making it the dominant competition on this list.
Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the under 2.5 goals market — 45%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Championship · England
81%
Championship · England
76%
Championship · England
75%
Allsvenskan · Sweden
74%
Serie B · Italy
73%
Premier League · England
69%
Championship · England
69%
Czech Liga · Czech-Republic
69%
Serie B · Italy
69%
Primeira Liga · Portugal
68%
La Liga · Spain
67%
Premier League · Russia
67%
Championship · England
66%
Serie A · Italy
66%
Championship · England
65%
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
64%
Ligue 2 · France
64%
Championship · England
63%
League One · England
62%
Ekstraklasa · Poland
62%
Showing top 20 fixtures by under 2.5 probability (a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
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Portuguese Football PredictionsUnder 2.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Under 2.5 Goals market mean?
Under 2.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with 2 or fewer total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate under 2.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The under 2.5 probability shown here is the probability of 2 or fewer total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Under 2.5 Goals on Saturday 4 December 2021?
20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Bristol City vs Derby at 81% under 2.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 55% or higher under 2.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these under 2.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.