Nieciecza 1-3 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza to take on Nieciecza. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Nieciecza have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2W 4D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Nieciecza trading profile (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 80% and Pogon Szczecin 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 53% | Pogon Szczecin 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.01 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.996 / defence 1.408 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.721 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.165. Data: 15 Nieciecza games / 16 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 31% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 40%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Pogon Szczecin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Nieciecza 88% | Pogon Szczecin 38% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 31% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Nieciecza 1.01 / Pogon Szczecin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.996 / def 1.408 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.721 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin?
Nieciecza 1 - 3 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 31% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nieciecza's attack at 1.00x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.44
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.19
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.18 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nieciecza's recent record stands at 2W 6D 7L from 15 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 2L across 15 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nieciecza heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nieciecza have managed 2W 3D 3L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
The Goals Picture
Nieciecza are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Pogon Szczecin in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 1.12 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nieciecza's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nieciecza
3
Draws
1
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Nieciecza.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nieciecza 88%, Pogon Szczecin 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 62% for Nieciecza and 0% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 38%; Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Nieciecza's games and 38% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Nieciecza's recent games and 0% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nieciecza and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nieciecza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Nieciecza 1-3 at Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.01 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 1.00 / defence 1.41 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.72 / defence 0.82, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 31% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 40%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 53%, Pogon Szczecin 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nieciecza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.