Zorya Luhansk 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zorya Luhansk host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Kharkiv — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Zorya Luhansk: 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for FC Kharkiv, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Zorya Luhansk 3–1 FC Kharkiv — a Zorya Luhansk win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Zorya Luhansk and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Zorya Luhansk in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 55% versus FC Kharkiv 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zorya Luhansk 52% | FC Kharkiv 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.100 / defence 0.800 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.915 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.210. Data: built from Zorya Luhansk's last 56 games and FC Kharkiv's last 26.
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.53 | Draw 3.03 | FC Kharkiv 3.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Zorya Luhansk 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Zorya Luhansk's last 10 home games and FC Kharkiv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zorya Luhansk 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.12 / FC Kharkiv 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.100 / def 0.800 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.915 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Kharkiv xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 40% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.10) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zorya Luhansk's last 56 games and FC Kharkiv's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
40%
2.53
33%
3.03
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.00
0.89
FC Kharkiv xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.89 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zorya Luhansk's recent record stands at 11W 9D 9L from 29 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 5L across 29 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zorya Luhansk on 1.45 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zorya Luhansk have managed 6W 5D 4L from their last 15 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 6W 7D 2L across their last 15 away games, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.17 scored and 0.55 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 11W 9D 9L in their last 29 games (1.45 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 14W 10D 5L in their last 29 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won FC Kharkiv 1-6 Zorya Luhansk.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Zorya Luhansk 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 40%, FC Kharkiv 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Zorya Luhansk and 27% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 40%; Zorya Luhansk have failed to score in 27% of games; FC Kharkiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 47% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 60% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 27, as Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.89 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.10 / defence 0.80 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 52%, FC Kharkiv 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.45 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.