Vorskla Poltava 1-4 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vorskla Poltava face Kryvbas KR.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Vorskla Poltava have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Kryvbas KR's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kryvbas KR's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Vorskla Poltava, 2.00 for Kryvbas KR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended Vorskla Poltava 1–0 Kryvbas KR — a Vorskla Poltava win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 56% versus Kryvbas KR 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Kryvbas KR 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.00 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.085 / defence 0.869 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.034 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.184. Kryvbas KR bring a tight defence (rating 0.785, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Vorskla Poltava's projected output down. Data: built from Vorskla Poltava's last 36 games and Kryvbas KR's last 37.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 3.05 | Draw 3.19 | Kryvbas KR 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vorskla Poltava's last 10 home games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vorskla Poltava 50% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.00 / Kryvbas KR 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.085 / def 0.869 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.034 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Kryvbas KR xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 4 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 33% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.08x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.03x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Vorskla Poltava's last 36 games and Kryvbas KR's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
33%
3.05
31%
3.19
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.07
1.06
Kryvbas KR xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.06 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 6D 14L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (16W 7D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 1.53 for Kryvbas KR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 10W 3D 5L across their last 18 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 18 away games (6W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.08 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 16W 6D 14L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 16W 7D 13L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.83 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won Vorskla Poltava 1-4 Kryvbas KR on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2025: Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, Kryvbas KR 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vorskla Poltava) and 39% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 33%; Kryvbas KR in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 33% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 39% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 50% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Vorskla Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Vorskla Poltava 1-4 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.00 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.06 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.03 / defence 0.79, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 33% | Draw 31% | Kryvbas KR 36%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Kryvbas KR 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.50 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.