Ruh Lviv 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk meet at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Arena Lviv, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Ruh Lviv against 2.30 for Shakhtar Donetsk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ruh Lviv have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Shakhtar Donetsk, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
It is worth noting that Shakhtar Donetsk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (36 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (36 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 56% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 44% | Shakhtar Donetsk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.37 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.209 / defence 0.903 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.518 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.219. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.518 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Ruh Lviv games / 37 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 44%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 60% | Shakhtar Donetsk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.37 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.209 / def 0.903 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.518 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 31% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (3 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 1.21x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (1.52x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.12
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
3.05
1.67
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
6%
16.96
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.67 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 10W 13D 13L from 36 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 27W 7D 2L across 36 games — 2.44 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 6W 9D 4L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 12W 5D 2L across 19 trips, a 2.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.33 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 13D 13L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 27W 7D 2L in their last 36 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.42 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-4 on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Ruh Lviv, 68% for Shakhtar Donetsk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ruh Lviv) and 68% (Shakhtar Donetsk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ruh Lviv's games and 68% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Ruh Lviv's matches and 68% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.37 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.67 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.21 / defence 0.90 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.52 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 44%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 44%, Shakhtar Donetsk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (36 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (36 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.