FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Kharkiv face Kolos Kovalivka.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv host Kolos Kovalivka at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Kharkiv stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Kolos Kovalivka have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Kharkiv at 1.50 PPG versus Kolos Kovalivka's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. FC Kharkiv's 30% BTTS rate and Kolos Kovalivka's 30% (from FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Kolos Kovalivka 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended FC Kharkiv 0–3 Kolos Kovalivka — a Kolos Kovalivka win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 33% of FC Kharkiv's games and 28% of Kolos Kovalivka's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 36% | Kolos Kovalivka 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.03 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.990 / defence 0.926 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.823 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.209. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 36 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 37.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.71 | Draw 3.14 | Kolos Kovalivka 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 30% (last 10 home games) | Kolos Kovalivka 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG FC Kharkiv 1.03 / Kolos Kovalivka 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.990 / def 0.926 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.823 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kolos Kovalivka xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 0 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 37% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Kolos Kovalivka's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Kolos Kovalivka's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 36 games and Kolos Kovalivka's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
37%
2.71
32%
3.14
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.95
0.92
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.92 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 9W 15D 12L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Kolos Kovalivka's form line: 11W 9D 16L from 36 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.17 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.28 PPG from their last 18 home games (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 4W 7D 7L from their last 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.78 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka in 28%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Kolos Kovalivka in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Kolos Kovalivka
Early Season
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Kolos Kovalivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Kolos Kovalivka
Early Season
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 15D 12L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.28 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.06 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2023, when Kolos Kovalivka won Kolos Kovalivka 3-0 FC Kharkiv.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Kolos Kovalivka specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
3
Draws
3
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Kolos Kovalivka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 39%, Kolos Kovalivka 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Kharkiv) and 28% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 39%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 44% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Kolos Kovalivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 33% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 28% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 8, as FC Kharkiv and Kolos Kovalivka drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.03 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.92 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Kolos Kovalivka landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.82 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 32% | Kolos Kovalivka 31%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 36%, Kolos Kovalivka 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.17 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.