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Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat SK Poltava 0-4 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 1.01 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 3.22 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.93 / defence 1.89 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.40 / defence 0.87, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 8% | Draw 13% | Shakhtar Donetsk 79%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 79%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 65%, Shakhtar Donetsk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.46. That form edge translated into the three points. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights