SK Poltava 0-2 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Poltava face Kudrivka.

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Analysis

Kudrivka make the trip to Zirka Stadium to face SK Poltava in Premier League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.

Form

SK Poltava (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, SK Poltava have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.

Kudrivka have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kudrivka's away record over their last 9 away games: 1W 1D 7L (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for SK Poltava, 0.60 for Kudrivka — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Kudrivka edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended SK Poltava 1–3 Kudrivka — a Kudrivka win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

SK Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Kudrivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Poltava 65% and Kudrivka 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Poltava 71% | Kudrivka 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SK Poltava surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Kudrivka have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 1.27 xG and Kudrivka 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.763 / defence 1.466 | Kudrivka attack 0.762 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.196. SK Poltava's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Kudrivka's defence rating of 1.382 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Poltava's projected output up. Kudrivka's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.34. SK Poltava's defence rating of 1.466 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kudrivka's projected output up. Data: built from SK Poltava's last 17 games and Kudrivka's last 17.

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 35% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 38%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 2.83 | Draw 3.80 | Kudrivka 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kudrivka are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kudrivka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SK Poltava 50% (last 8 home games) | Kudrivka 44% (last 9 away games).

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