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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as SK Poltava and Kryvbas KR drew 3-3 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.92 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.98 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SK Poltava beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.75 / defence 1.84 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 17% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 62%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 64%, Kryvbas KR 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SK Poltava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights