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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 7-1 hammering of SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat SK Poltava 7-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.38 xG and SK Poltava 0.90 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.46 / defence 0.90 against SK Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 1.50, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 70% | Draw 17% | SK Poltava 12%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 46%, SK Poltava 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.

SK Poltava's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. SK Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights