Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (78%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shakhtar Donetsk face Obolon'-Brovar.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's record over their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Obolon'-Brovar's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Obolon'-Brovar managing 0 and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 6–0 Obolon'-Brovar — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Shakhtar Donetsk and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 46% versus Obolon'-Brovar 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 57% | Obolon'-Brovar 45%). Note also that Obolon'-Brovar surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Shakhtar Donetsk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.49 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.418 / defence 0.629 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.746 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.254. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.418 — their 2.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.382 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output up. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Shakhtar Donetsk have a tight defence (rating 0.629), which is pulling Obolon'-Brovar's projected output down. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 57 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 56.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 78% | Draw 16% | Obolon'-Brovar 6%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.28 | Draw 6.41 | Obolon'-Brovar 16.45. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (78%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 home games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 30% (last 10 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 78% | Draw 16% | Obolon'-Brovar 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.49 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.418 / def 0.629 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.746 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Obolon'-Brovar xG
41%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Shakhtar Donetsk 3 - 1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 78% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 6% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.42) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.75x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 57 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
78%
1.28
16%
6.41
6%
16.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.08
0.59
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.41
16%
Draw
16.45
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
8%
12.09
Win to Nil
43%
2.30
1%
198.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.59 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shakhtar Donetsk's recent record stands at 37W 14D 5L from 56 games, a 2.23 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 25L across 56 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shakhtar Donetsk have managed 21W 4D 2L from their last 27 home games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 7W 4D 16L across their last 27 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.73 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs Obolon'-Brovar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 37W 14D 5L in their last 56 games (2.23 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 13W 18D 25L in their last 56 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.48 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won Obolon'-Brovar 0-6 Shakhtar Donetsk on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 48%, Obolon'-Brovar 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 52% for Obolon'-Brovar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 52% of Obolon'-Brovar's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 70% of Obolon'-Brovar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.49 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.59 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.42 / defence 0.63 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.75 / defence 1.38, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 78% | Draw 16% | Obolon'-Brovar 6%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, Obolon'-Brovar 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.