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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ruh Lviv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty beat Ruh Lviv 0-3 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.90 xG and Karpaty 1.39 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Karpaty outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Karpaty attack 0.98 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 49%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Karpaty 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karpaty's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.07 PPG, Karpaty 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights