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Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava encounter.

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Match Analysis

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host SK Poltava at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Poltava stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Premier League this season, SK Poltava have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, SK Poltava 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

SK Poltava in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 45% versus SK Poltava 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52% | SK Poltava 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.11 xG and SK Poltava 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.098 / defence 0.978 | SK Poltava attack 0.657 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.241. SK Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 29 SK Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% | Draw 21% | SK Poltava 12%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | SK Poltava 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% | SK Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.

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