Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 SK Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host SK Poltava at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Poltava stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Premier League this season, SK Poltava have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, SK Poltava 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
SK Poltava in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 45% versus SK Poltava 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52% | SK Poltava 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.11 xG and SK Poltava 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.098 / defence 0.978 | SK Poltava attack 0.657 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.241. SK Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 29 SK Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% | Draw 21% | SK Poltava 12%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | SK Poltava 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% | SK Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% | Draw 21% | SK Poltava 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 49% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.11 / SK Poltava 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.098 / def 0.978 | SK Poltava attack 0.657 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.80
SK Poltava xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0 - 0 SK Poltava.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 67% chance of winning, SK Poltava a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W | Draws 0 | SK Poltava 0W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. SK Poltava (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 1.10x the league average against SK Poltava's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Poltava's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.80
12%
8.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.91
0.80
SK Poltava xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
8.20
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
1%
67.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.80 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 8W 7D 14L from 29 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five.
SK Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 21L across 29 games — 0.41 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Epitsentr Dunayivtsi by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SK Poltava heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have managed 4W 3D 7L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Poltava's away record stands at 1W 3D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; SK Poltava are on 0.79 scored and 2.55 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Current Season
SK Poltava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 8W 7D 14L in their last 29 games (1.07 PPG), while SK Poltava have gone 2W 6D 21L in their last 29 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or SK Poltava away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.07 PPG; SK Poltava away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or SK Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SK Poltava in 3%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
Draws
0
SK Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, SK Poltava have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 SK Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%, SK Poltava 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 57% (SK Poltava).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 29% of games; SK Poltava in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / SK Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play SK Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 57% of SK Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs SK Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 57% of SK Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, SK Poltava in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.11 xG and SK Poltava 0.80 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against SK Poltava attack 0.66 / defence 1.55, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% | Draw 21% | SK Poltava 12%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%, SK Poltava 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SK Poltava's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. SK Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.