Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 SK Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Obolon'-Brovar face SK Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SK Poltava travel to Obolon Arena to take on Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Obolon'-Brovar's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
SK Poltava — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
SK Poltava away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Obolon'-Brovar 0.60 PPG, SK Poltava 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, SK Poltava 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Obolon'-Brovar 2–1 SK Poltava — a Obolon'-Brovar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
SK Poltava trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 39% versus SK Poltava 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 52% | SK Poltava 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.90 xG and SK Poltava 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.928 / defence 1.234 | SK Poltava attack 0.820 / defence 1.632. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.170. SK Poltava's defence rating of 1.632 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output up. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Poltava's projected output up. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 52 games and SK Poltava's last 23.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 54% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 24%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 1.85 | Draw 4.47 | SK Poltava 4.24. Obolon'-Brovar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Obolon'-Brovar are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Obolon'-Brovar's last 10 home games and SK Poltava's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 40% (last 10 home games) | SK Poltava 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 54% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.90 / SK Poltava 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.928 / def 1.234 | SK Poltava attack 0.820 / def 1.632 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.18
SK Poltava xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava FAQs
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 17 April 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 1 SK Poltava.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 54% chance of winning, SK Poltava a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Obolon'-Brovar's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against SK Poltava's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, SK Poltava's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 52 games and SK Poltava's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.47
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
3.08
1.18
SK Poltava xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
4%
28.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.18 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 7D 10L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, SK Poltava sit at 0.43 PPG from 23 outings (2W 4D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Obolon'-Brovar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of SK Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 2W 5D 4L across their last 11 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Poltava have taken 0.45 points per game from their last 11 away games (1W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Obolon'-Brovar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; SK Poltava are on 0.83 scored and 2.61 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
SK Poltava
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar (Home) vs SK Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
SK Poltava
Blended
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava Form FAQs
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while SK Poltava have gone 2W 4D 17L in their last 23 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or SK Poltava away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.00 PPG; SK Poltava away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or SK Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SK Poltava in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
0
SK Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, SK Poltava have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 April 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 SK Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 36%, SK Poltava 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 73% (SK Poltava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 46% of games; SK Poltava in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / SK Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs SK Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 64% of SK Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Obolon'-Brovar's matches and 73% of SK Poltava's.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 100% of SK Poltava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava finished level at 1-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.90 xG and SK Poltava 1.18 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.93 / defence 1.23 against SK Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.63, drawn from 52/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 54% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 24%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 52%, SK Poltava 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Poltava's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Obolon'-Brovar arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. SK Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.