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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar and SK Poltava finished level at 1-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.90 xG and SK Poltava 1.18 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Obolon'-Brovar fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.93 / defence 1.23 against SK Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.63, drawn from 52/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 54% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 24%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 52%, SK Poltava 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

SK Poltava's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Obolon'-Brovar arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. SK Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights