Obolon'-Brovar 2-2 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 39%, yet in-form Epitsentr Dunayivtsi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Obolon'-Brovar (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Obolon'-Brovar, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended Obolon'-Brovar 2–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — a Obolon'-Brovar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Obolon'-Brovar — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 44% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 48% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.42 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.857 / defence 1.185 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.882 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.210. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating of 1.328 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output up. Data: built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 55 games and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 26.
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 2.54 | Draw 3.55 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Obolon'-Brovar's last 10 home games and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Obolon'-Brovar 50% (last 10 home games) | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.42 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.857 / def 1.185 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.882 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi FAQs
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Obolon'-Brovar 2 - 2 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 39% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.86x the league average against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (0.88x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Obolon'-Brovar's last 55 games and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.55
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.68
1.26
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.26 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Obolon'-Brovar come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 9D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Obolon'-Brovar against 1.00 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Obolon'-Brovar's home form reads 2W 7D 4L across their last 13 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 13 away games (4W 2D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.22 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar (Home) vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Form FAQs
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.00 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 46%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 54% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 31%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 38% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Obolon'-Brovar vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 31% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 54% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 69% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.42 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 55/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 48%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.