FC Kharkiv 4-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Veres Rivne travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on FC Kharkiv in Premier League (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Kharkiv stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Veres Rivne — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
FC Kharkiv carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Veres Rivne have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for FC Kharkiv.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 May 2024, ended FC Kharkiv 1–2 Veres Rivne — a Veres Rivne win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Veres Rivne have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 36% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 32% of FC Kharkiv's games and 36% of Veres Rivne's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 20% | Veres Rivne 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.84 xG and Veres Rivne 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.774 / defence 0.697 | Veres Rivne attack 0.815 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.181. FC Kharkiv's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. FC Kharkiv have a tight defence (rating 0.697), which is pulling Veres Rivne's projected output down. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 22 games and Veres Rivne's last 52.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 36% | Veres Rivne 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.72 | Draw 2.75 | Veres Rivne 3.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS Yes probability 28% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Veres Rivne's lower xG of 0.67 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 0), but FC Kharkiv carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.51 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Veres Rivne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 20% (last 10 home games) | Veres Rivne 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 36% | Veres Rivne 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% (Under 81%) | BTTS Yes 28% (No 72%) | xG FC Kharkiv 0.84 / Veres Rivne 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.774 / def 0.697 | Veres Rivne attack 0.815 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Veres Rivne xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
FC Kharkiv 4 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 37% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (72%).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (81%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.77) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 22 games and Veres Rivne's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
37%
2.72
36%
2.75
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
1.51
0.67
Veres Rivne xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.60
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.0 | 14.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.67 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 12W 9D 4L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Veres Rivne's form line: 6W 9D 10L from 25 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 11 home games (6W 3D 2L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 5D 4L from their last 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.84 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 12W 9D 4L in their last 25 games (1.80 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Veres Rivne away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.91 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won FC Kharkiv 4-0 Veres Rivne.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Kharkiv
0
Draws
5
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Kharkiv 18% BTTS, Veres Rivne 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for FC Kharkiv and 36% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 27% of games; Veres Rivne in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 46% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 36% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 36% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 73% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Kharkiv run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Veres Rivne 4-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.84 xG and Veres Rivne 0.67 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.77 / defence 0.70 against Veres Rivne attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 37% | Draw 36% | Veres Rivne 27%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 24% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 20%, Veres Rivne 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.