LNZ Cherkasy 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as LNZ Cherkasy take on Obolon'-Brovar.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as LNZ Cherkasy welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Cherkasy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cherkasy Arena, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for LNZ Cherkasy, 2 for Obolon'-Brovar and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 39% | Obolon'-Brovar 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.740 / defence 0.697 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.809 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.317. LNZ Cherkasy's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 LNZ Cherkasy games / 44 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 37% | Obolon'-Brovar 31%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Obolon'-Brovar 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Obolon'-Brovar's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.49 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 28% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 10% | Obolon'-Brovar 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 37% | Obolon'-Brovar 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.740 / def 0.697 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.809 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Obolon'-Brovar xG
28%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
LNZ Cherkasy 3 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 32% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (4 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 1 | Obolon'-Brovar 2W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.74) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 0-1 (15.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
37%
2.72
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.49
0.74
Obolon'-Brovar xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.61
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.4 | 16.7 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.74 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 12D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 1.11 PPG from 44 outings (12W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.36 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 9W 5D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 1.14 points per game from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L).
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.68 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.45 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.14 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when LNZ Cherkasy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
2
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — LNZ Cherkasy 32% BTTS, Obolon'-Brovar 32%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for LNZ Cherkasy and 46% for Obolon'-Brovar.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 36% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 32% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 46% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.74 / defence 0.70 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 37% | Obolon'-Brovar 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 25%, Obolon'-Brovar 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.