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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Poltava vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Zirka Stadium to take on SK Poltava. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 December 2025, 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Poltava stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Poltava's home record at Zirka Stadium: 1W 1D 4L from 6 Premier League appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 3L across 7 road games this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SK Poltava's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

In-Play Profile

SK Poltava in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 64% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 64% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.82 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.824 / defence 1.396 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.815 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.245. Data: 14 SK Poltava games / 14 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 22% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.96. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 29% BTTS from recent games.

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