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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.82 xG and Polessya 0.95 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.94 / defence 0.60 against Polessya attack 1.26 / defence 0.67, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 28% | Draw 36% | Polessya 36%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 21%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.86 PPG, Polessya 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights