FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 37%, yet in-form FC Kharkiv provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Oleksandria travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on FC Kharkiv in Premier League (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, FC Kharkiv have posted 3W 3D 2L from their last 8 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Oleksandria's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Kharkiv carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Oleksandria 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended FC Kharkiv 4–1 Oleksandria — a FC Kharkiv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (last 19 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (last 19 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 42% versus Oleksandria 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 21% | Oleksandria 47%). Note also that Oleksandria surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while FC Kharkiv recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.98 xG and Oleksandria 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.708 / defence 0.934 | Oleksandria attack 0.927 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.247. FC Kharkiv's attack rating of 0.708 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 16 games and Oleksandria's last 46.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 32% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.11 | Draw 3.29 | Oleksandria 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FC Kharkiv's last 8 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 25% (last 8 home games) | Oleksandria 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 32% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG FC Kharkiv 0.98 / Oleksandria 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.708 / def 0.934 | Oleksandria attack 0.927 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Oleksandria xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 32% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.71) and Oleksandria's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 16 games and Oleksandria's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
32%
3.11
30%
3.29
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.06
1.08
Oleksandria xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.8 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.08 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 19 games, going 8W 8D 3L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 0.79 PPG from 19 outings (3W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
FC Kharkiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across their last 8 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 8 away games (0W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 0.95 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 8W 8D 3L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Oleksandria away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.50 PPG; Oleksandria away: 0.50 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won FC Kharkiv 0-3 Oleksandria.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Oleksandria have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 25%, Oleksandria 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for FC Kharkiv and 50% for Oleksandria.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 38% of games; Oleksandria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 62% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 50% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 38% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 62% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Oleksandria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Oleksandria 1-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.98 xG and Oleksandria 1.08 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.71 / defence 0.93 against Oleksandria attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 32% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 37%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 21%, Oleksandria 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Oleksandria's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.