Chornomorets 0-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 18 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Chornomorets, Chornomorets have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Veres Rivne (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Veres Rivne are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 60% versus Veres Rivne 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chornomorets 90% | Veres Rivne 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.27 xG and Veres Rivne 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.861 / defence 1.460 | Veres Rivne attack 0.914 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 1.197. Veres Rivne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Chornomorets games / 10 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 30% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 45%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Veres Rivne 2.22. Veres Rivne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 50% | Veres Rivne 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 30% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Chornomorets 1.27 / Veres Rivne 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.861 / def 1.460 | Veres Rivne attack 0.914 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.061 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Veres Rivne xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne part of?
Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 30% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chornomorets and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.86x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.91x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
30%
3.31
25%
4.01
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.87
1.60
Veres Rivne xG
3.31
30%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
6%
16.32
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.60 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 4L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Veres Rivne by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Veres Rivne's season.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.90 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Veres Rivne in 30%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Veres Rivne away?
Veres Rivne's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.50 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
1
Draws
5
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Veres Rivne have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Veres Rivne 2-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 50%, Veres Rivne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Chornomorets and 75% for Veres Rivne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Chornomorets's matches and 75% of Veres Rivne's.
Do Chornomorets and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Veres Rivne edge out Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.27 xG and Veres Rivne 1.60 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.86 / defence 1.46 against Veres Rivne attack 0.91 / defence 1.39, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 30% | Draw 25% | Veres Rivne 45%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 90%, Veres Rivne 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.