LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 SK Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cherkasy Arena plays host to LNZ Cherkasy versus SK Poltava in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SK Poltava's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, SK Poltava have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (1.60 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, LNZ Cherkasy edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 SK Poltava — a LNZ Cherkasy win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
SK Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 22% versus SK Poltava 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 30% | SK Poltava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.82 xG and SK Poltava 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.947 / defence 0.766 | SK Poltava attack 0.711 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.262. SK Poltava's defence rating of 1.524 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output up. SK Poltava's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. LNZ Cherkasy have a tight defence (rating 0.766), which is pulling SK Poltava's projected output down. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 57 games and SK Poltava's last 27.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 64% | Draw 24% | SK Poltava 12%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.57 | Draw 4.15 | SK Poltava 8.07. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (64%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 home games) | SK Poltava 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 64% | Draw 24% | SK Poltava 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.82 / SK Poltava 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.947 / def 0.766 | SK Poltava attack 0.711 / def 1.524 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.69
SK Poltava xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 0 SK Poltava.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 64% chance of winning, SK Poltava a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.95) and SK Poltava's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Poltava's attack (0.71x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 57 games and SK Poltava's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.15
12%
8.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.51
0.69
SK Poltava xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
8.07
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
2%
50.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.69 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 16W 6D 5L from 27 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five.
SK Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 19L across 27 games — 0.44 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours LNZ Cherkasy by 1.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SK Poltava heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 6W 4D 3L from their last 13 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Poltava's away record stands at 1W 3D 9L across their last 13 away games, a 0.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; SK Poltava are on 0.85 scored and 2.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
SK Poltava
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs SK Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
SK Poltava
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 16W 6D 5L in their last 27 games (2.00 PPG), while SK Poltava have gone 2W 6D 19L in their last 27 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or SK Poltava away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.69 PPG; SK Poltava away: 0.46 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or SK Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, SK Poltava in 4%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 13 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
0
SK Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, SK Poltava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 SK Poltava.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 23%, SK Poltava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 62% (SK Poltava).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 31% of games; SK Poltava in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / SK Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs SK Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 62% of SK Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 62% of SK Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and SK Poltava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 85% of SK Poltava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat SK Poltava 2-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.82 xG and SK Poltava 0.69 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.95 / defence 0.77 against SK Poltava attack 0.71 / defence 1.52, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 64% | Draw 24% | SK Poltava 12%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 30%, SK Poltava 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
SK Poltava's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.44. That form edge translated into the three points. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.