LNZ Cherkasy 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as LNZ Cherkasy face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 11 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
LNZ Cherkasy — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
LNZ Cherkasy at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Shakhtar Donetsk have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for LNZ Cherkasy. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended LNZ Cherkasy 1–5 Shakhtar Donetsk — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 52 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (last 52 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 42% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: LNZ Cherkasy surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Shakhtar Donetsk have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.936 / defence 1.032 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.119 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 0.887. Shakhtar Donetsk bring a tight defence (rating 0.743, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling LNZ Cherkasy's projected output down. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 53 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 52.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.56 | Draw 3.10 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 50% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.936 / def 1.032 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.119 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.166 / away 0.887 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Friday 11 April 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 28% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.94x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 53 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
28%
3.56
32%
3.10
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.83
1.02
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
18%
5.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.02 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 18W 12D 22L from 52 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 36W 10D 6L across 52 games — 2.27 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 10W 4D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 14W 7D 3L across their last 24 away games, a 2.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.19 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 18W 12D 22L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 36W 10D 6L in their last 52 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.42 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.04 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Shakhtar Donetsk 5-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 46%, Shakhtar Donetsk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 42% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 46%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 42% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-4 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.02 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.12 / defence 0.74, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 42%, Shakhtar Donetsk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.