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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as LNZ Cherkasy face Shakhtar Donetsk.

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Match Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at Cherkasy Arena than their overall form suggests.

Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shakhtar Donetsk, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for LNZ Cherkasy.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–5 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 42% | Shakhtar Donetsk 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.936 / defence 1.032 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.119 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 0.887. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 LNZ Cherkasy games / 52 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 30% BTTS from recent games.

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