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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ruh Lviv welcome Oleksandria to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ruh Lviv at Arena Lviv this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Oleksandria — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Oleksandria have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Oleksandria — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Ruh Lviv's 30% rate and Oleksandria's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 0 for Oleksandria and 6 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Ruh Lviv trading profile (53 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).

Oleksandria trading profile (53 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 49% versus Oleksandria 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 32% | Oleksandria 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.79 xG and Oleksandria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.740 / defence 1.128 | Oleksandria attack 0.920 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 0.938. Ruh Lviv's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Ruh Lviv games / 53 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 28% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 39%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Oleksandria 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Ruh Lviv's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 30% | Oleksandria 20% BTTS from recent games.

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