Ruh Lviv 1-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ruh Lviv welcome Oleksandria to Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ruh Lviv at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Oleksandria — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Ruh Lviv's 30% BTTS rate and Oleksandria's 20% (from Ruh Lviv's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Oleksandria 0, with 6 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Ruh Lviv 1–1 Oleksandria — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 53 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Oleksandria trading profile (last 53 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 49% versus Oleksandria 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 32% | Oleksandria 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.79 xG and Oleksandria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.740 / defence 1.128 | Oleksandria attack 0.920 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 0.938. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 53 games and Oleksandria's last 53.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 28% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 39%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.53 | Draw 3.02 | Oleksandria 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Ruh Lviv's lower xG of 0.79 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 74% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ruh Lviv's last 10 home games and Oleksandria's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 30% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 28% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Ruh Lviv 0.79 / Oleksandria 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.740 / def 1.128 | Oleksandria attack 0.920 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.152 / away 0.938 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Oleksandria xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 28% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.74x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 53 games and Oleksandria's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
28%
3.53
33%
3.02
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.76
0.97
Oleksandria xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 16.7 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.97 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 19W 21D 13L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Oleksandria's form line: 24W 15D 14L from 53 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.47 PPG, Oleksandria on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 24 home games (6W 11D 7L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 8W 8D 8L from their last 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.23 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Oleksandria in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 19W 21D 13L in their last 53 games (1.47 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 24W 15D 14L in their last 53 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.21 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
7
Draws
1
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 1, Oleksandria have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Ruh Lviv 1-3 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 46%, Oleksandria 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ruh Lviv) and 50% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oleksandria in 46%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games; Oleksandria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 50% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 62% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv and Oleksandria finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.79 xG and Oleksandria 0.97 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.74 / defence 1.13 against Oleksandria attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 28% | Draw 33% | Oleksandria 39%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 32%, Oleksandria 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (53 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (53 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.47 PPG, Oleksandria 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.