🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Current Form

Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.

LNZ Cherkasy have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.30 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 44% versus LNZ Cherkasy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 46% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.01 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.806 / defence 1.156 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.931 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 0.926. Data: 52 Chornomorets games / 52 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 34%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 70%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights