Chornomorets 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.30 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 44% versus LNZ Cherkasy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 46% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.01 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.806 / defence 1.156 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.931 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 0.926. Data: 52 Chornomorets games / 52 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 34%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Chornomorets 1.01 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.806 / def 1.156 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.931 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.170 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.99
LNZ Cherkasy xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Chornomorets 1 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 35% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (3 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 1 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.81) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.93x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.25
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.01
0.99
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.99 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 14W 5D 33L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 18W 12D 22L from 52 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.27 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (10W 2D 13L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 8D 10L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.02 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 14W 5D 33L in their last 52 games (0.90 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 18W 12D 22L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.28 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Chornomorets.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 36%, LNZ Cherkasy 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chornomorets) and 36% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 32% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 52% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chornomorets's recent games and 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chornomorets edge out LNZ Cherkasy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.01 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 35% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 34%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, LNZ Cherkasy 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 0.90 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.