LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face Polessya.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Polessya travel to Cherkasy Arena to take on LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
LNZ Cherkasy's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Polessya — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Polessya have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 1.20 (Polessya). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Polessya 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended LNZ Cherkasy 1–1 Polessya — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Polessya trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 49% versus Polessya 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Polessya 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: LNZ Cherkasy surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Polessya have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.52 xG and Polessya 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.031 / defence 1.059 | Polessya attack 1.033 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 0.853. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 51 games and Polessya's last 51.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 51% | Draw 26% | Polessya 23%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.97 | Draw 3.86 | Polessya 4.31. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 50% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 51% | Draw 26% | Polessya 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.52 / Polessya 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.031 / def 1.059 | Polessya attack 1.033 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.244 / away 0.853 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Polessya xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 1 Polessya.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 51% chance of winning, Polessya a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 51 games and Polessya's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.86
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.45
0.93
Polessya xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
5%
19.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.93 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 18W 12D 21L from 51 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 13L across 51 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.29 PPG, Polessya on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 10W 4D 11L from their last 25 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 11W 6D 8L across their last 25 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.33 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Polessya
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Polessya have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.36 PPG; Polessya away: 1.56 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Polessya in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Polessya have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 48%, Polessya 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 48% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Polessya in 40%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 28% of games; Polessya in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 48% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 64% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Polessya defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.52 xG and Polessya 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Polessya attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 51% | Draw 26% | Polessya 23%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Polessya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 43%, Polessya 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.29 PPG, Polessya 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.