Inhulets 0-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 35%, yet in-form Veres Rivne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Inhulets vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Hirnyk plays host to Inhulets versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Inhulets have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inhulets have posted 2W 0D 3L at Stadion Hirnyk — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Veres Rivne arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Inhulets 1W, Veres Rivne 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Inhulets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 35% versus Veres Rivne 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 40% | Veres Rivne 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.93 xG and Veres Rivne 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.693 / defence 0.995 | Veres Rivne attack 1.028 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 0.865. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Inhulets games / 51 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 35% | Draw 33% | Veres Rivne 32%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Veres Rivne 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inhulets are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Veres Rivne (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 0% | Veres Rivne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 35% | Draw 33% | Veres Rivne 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Inhulets 0.93 / Veres Rivne 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.693 / def 0.995 | Veres Rivne attack 1.028 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.256 / away 0.865 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Veres Rivne xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Inhulets vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Inhulets 0 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne part of?
Inhulets vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 35% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Inhulets and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Veres Rivne?
Record (4 meetings): Inhulets 1W | Draws 2 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Inhulets and Veres Rivne in?
Inhulets (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.69x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (1.03x) against Inhulets's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 20/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
35%
2.87
33%
3.06
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.82
0.89
Veres Rivne xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 14.4 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.89 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Inhulets come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 6D 11L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Inhulets's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Inhulets are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inhulets are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.35 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 6D 11L in their last 20 games (0.75 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Veres Rivne away?
Inhulets's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.20 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
3
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Veres Rivne?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-0 Veres Rivne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Inhulets) and 20% (Veres Rivne) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Inhulets and 60% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Inhulets have failed to score in 60% of games; Veres Rivne in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Inhulets's recent matches and 20% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Inhulets's recent games and 60% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Inhulets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 22, as Inhulets and Veres Rivne drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.93 xG and Veres Rivne 0.89 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inhulets fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.69 / defence 0.99 against Veres Rivne attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 20/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 35% | Draw 33% | Veres Rivne 32%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 40%, Veres Rivne 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (20 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (20 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.