Livyi Bereh 2-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Veres Rivne travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Livyi Bereh. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Livyi Bereh stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Livyi Bereh this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Livyi Bereh) versus 1.60 (Veres Rivne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Livyi Bereh, 0 for Veres Rivne and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Livyi Bereh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Livyi Bereh trading profile (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
Veres Rivne trading profile (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 22% versus Veres Rivne 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Livyi Bereh 26% | Veres Rivne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.92 xG and Veres Rivne 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.773 / defence 1.198 | Veres Rivne attack 1.132 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 0.920. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Livyi Bereh games / 49 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 27% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 44%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Veres Rivne 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 20% | Veres Rivne 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 27% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.92 / Veres Rivne 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.773 / def 1.198 | Veres Rivne attack 1.132 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.201 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Veres Rivne xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne?
Livyi Bereh 2 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 27% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 1W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
27%
3.69
29%
3.42
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.17
1.25
Veres Rivne xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.25 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 6D 11L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (8W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 1.04 PPG, Veres Rivne on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Livyi Bereh's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 22% of their recent games; Veres Rivne in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 8W 9D 6L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Veres Rivne away?
Veres Rivne's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.10 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
0
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 2, Veres Rivne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Livyi Bereh 2-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Livyi Bereh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 20% BTTS, Veres Rivne 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Livyi Bereh) and 50% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 60% of games; Veres Rivne in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 50% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 50% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Veres Rivne 2-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.92 xG and Veres Rivne 1.25 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Livyi Bereh beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Veres Rivne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against Veres Rivne attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 27% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 44%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 26%, Veres Rivne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 1.04 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.