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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Livyi Bereh vs Ruh Lviv encounter.

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Analysis

Ruh Lviv make the trip to Stadion Livyi Bereh to face Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form

Livyi Bereh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Livyi Bereh at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Ruh Lviv have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ruh Lviv are 0.70 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh in recent Premier League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Livyi Bereh lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Ruh Lviv winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

Ruh Lviv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 28% | Ruh Lviv 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 31% | Ruh Lviv 28%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.818 / defence 1.279 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.003 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.012. Data: 28 Livyi Bereh games / 58 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 44%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Ruh Lviv 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 40% | Ruh Lviv 50% BTTS from recent games.

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