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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Inhulets take on Livyi Bereh.

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Match Analysis

Inhulets host Livyi Bereh at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at CSC Nika, Inhulets have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at CSC Nika. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Livyi Bereh — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Livyi Bereh away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Inhulets at 1.10 PPG versus Livyi Bereh's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Inhulets's 10% and Livyi Bereh's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Inhulets have won 0, Livyi Bereh 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Inhulets in-play tendencies (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 63% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Inhulets 30% | Livyi Bereh 22%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Inhulets 37% | Livyi Bereh 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.78 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.516 / defence 1.077 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.624 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.019. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.516 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Livyi Bereh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Inhulets games / 27 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Inhulets 33% | Draw 39% | Livyi Bereh 28%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Livyi Bereh 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 10% | Livyi Bereh 10% BTTS from recent games.

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