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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inhulets face Shakhtar Donetsk.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Inhulets welcome Shakhtar Donetsk to Stadion Ukraina. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Inhulets at Stadion Ukraina this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Shakhtar Donetsk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Inhulets's 0 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–6 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Inhulets in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 32% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 39% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.47 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.595 / defence 1.106 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.356 / defence 0.673. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.012. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.595 is below the league average — the 0.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.673 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Inhulets games / 58 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Inhulets 11% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 64%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 9.09 | Draw 4.00 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Inhulets's lower xG of 0.47 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 20% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% BTTS from recent games.

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