Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy – Match Report

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Livyi Bereh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Livyi Bereh beat LNZ Cherkasy 3-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.16 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Livyi Bereh beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.52 / defence 1.21 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 23% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Livyi Bereh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 26%, LNZ Cherkasy 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Livyi Bereh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights