Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
23%
4.37
35%
2.84
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.96
1.16
LNZ Cherkasy xG
4.37
23%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.16 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.