Livyi Bereh 3-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Livyi Bereh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Livyi Bereh's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Livyi Bereh are significantly better at Stadion Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.

LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. LNZ Cherkasy are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Livyi Bereh have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 68% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 21% versus LNZ Cherkasy 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.80 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.518 / defence 1.210 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.939 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.019. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.518 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. LNZ Cherkasy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Livyi Bereh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Livyi Bereh games / 45 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 23% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 42%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 70% BTTS from recent games.

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