Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Livyi Bereh take on Chornomorets.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chornomorets travel to Arena Livyi Bereg to take on Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Livyi Bereh — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Livyi Bereh's home record over their last 6 home games: 2W 3D 1L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Chornomorets have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Chornomorets have posted 1W 0D 4L from their last 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Livyi Bereh at 1.20 PPG versus Chornomorets's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Livyi Bereh, 0 for Chornomorets and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Sep 2026, ended Livyi Bereh 0–0 Chornomorets — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 46% versus Chornomorets 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 18% | Chornomorets 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.05 xG and Chornomorets 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.702 / defence 1.023 | Chornomorets attack 0.835 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.040. Livyi Bereh's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Livyi Bereh's last 10 games and Chornomorets's last 11.
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 35% | Draw 39% | Chornomorets 26%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.88 | Draw 2.55 | Chornomorets 3.85. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Livyi Bereh's last 6 home games and Chornomorets's last 5 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Livyi Bereh 33% (last 6 home games) | Chornomorets 40% (last 5 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, matchday 20 | Venue: Arena Livyi Bereg • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 35% | Draw 39% | Chornomorets 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Livyi Bereh 1.05 / Chornomorets 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.702 / def 1.023 | Chornomorets attack 0.835 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Chornomorets xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets FAQs
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Arena Livyi Bereg.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets is a Premier League fixture (matchday 20) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 35% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 26% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.70x the league average against Chornomorets's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Livyi Bereh's last 10 games and Chornomorets's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
39%
2.55
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.94
0.89
Chornomorets xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 0.89 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Livyi Bereh have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 3W 6D 2L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Chornomorets's form line: 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Livyi Bereh are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Livyi Bereh have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 5 home games (1W 3D 1L).
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 4L from their last 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Livyi Bereh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
Livyi Bereh (Home) vs Chornomorets (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets Form FAQs
What form are Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Chornomorets away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.20 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Livyi Bereh have won 2, Chornomorets have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Chornomorets 0-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 40%, Chornomorets 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Livyi Bereh and 40% for Chornomorets.
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 40% of games; Chornomorets in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 40% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 40% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 100% of Chornomorets's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.