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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kudrivka edge out Ruh Lviv 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka beat Ruh Lviv 2-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.12 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.88 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kudrivka beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.57 / defence 1.11, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 40% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 27%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 48%, Ruh Lviv 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kudrivka 0.86 PPG, Ruh Lviv 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kudrivka win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights