Kudrivka 0-2 Polessya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Polessya at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kudrivka host Polessya at Obolon Arena in Premier League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kudrivka stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kudrivka are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Polessya have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Polessya's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Polessya — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Kudrivka have won 0, Polessya 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Kudrivka 0–2 Polessya — a Polessya win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Polessya in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 64% versus Polessya 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 54% | Polessya 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.87 xG and Polessya 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.893 / defence 1.123 | Polessya attack 1.401 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.163. Polessya have an above-average attack rating of 1.401, which lifts their away xG to 1.83. Data: built from Kudrivka's last 20 games and Polessya's last 50.
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 17% | Draw 23% | Polessya 60%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 5.81 | Draw 4.38 | Polessya 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Polessya (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kudrivka's last 10 home games and Polessya's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kudrivka 80% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 17% | Draw 23% | Polessya 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Kudrivka 0.87 / Polessya 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.893 / def 1.123 | Polessya attack 1.401 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Polessya (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Polessya xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kudrivka vs Polessya FAQs
What time does Kudrivka vs Polessya kick off?
Kudrivka vs Polessya kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Kudrivka 0 - 2 Polessya.
Where is Kudrivka vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Polessya part of?
Kudrivka vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 17% chance of winning, Polessya a 60% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kudrivka and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Kudrivka vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 0.89x the league average against Polessya's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kudrivka's last 20 games and Polessya's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
17%
5.81
23%
4.38
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.70
1.83
Polessya xG
5.81
17%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
3%
36.17
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kudrivka vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.83 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Polessya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kudrivka's recent record stands at 6W 6D 10L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 13W 4D 5L across 22 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kudrivka heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kudrivka have managed 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Polessya's away record stands at 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 away games, a 2.40 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.95 PPG overall record — Polessya travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kudrivka are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.64 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Polessya in 27%.
Defensively: Polessya in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
Polessya
Blended
Kudrivka (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kudrivka
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Kudrivka vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are Kudrivka and Polessya in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Polessya have gone 13W 4D 5L in their last 22 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.60 PPG; Polessya away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Polessya in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Polessya have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Sep 2026, when Polessya won Polessya 5-1 Kudrivka.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Kudrivka
0
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Kudrivka vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Polessya?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Kudrivka have won 0, Polessya have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Polessya 5-1 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 80%, Polessya 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Kudrivka and 50% for Polessya. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Polessya in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kudrivka vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kudrivka and Polessya matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Kudrivka's games and 30% of Polessya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kudrivka and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Kudrivka's matches and 50% of Polessya's.
Do Kudrivka and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 90% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kudrivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Kudrivka 0-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.87 xG and Polessya 1.83 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kudrivka fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Polessya attack 1.40 / defence 0.82, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 17% | Draw 23% | Polessya 60%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 54%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Polessya's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.