Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Girnyk to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 25 November 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's home record at Girnyk: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Kharkiv — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Kryvbas KR hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for FC Kharkiv, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Kryvbas KR a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 60% versus FC Kharkiv 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 65% | FC Kharkiv 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.21 xG and FC Kharkiv 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.970 / defence 1.469 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.198 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.141. Data: 37 Kryvbas KR games / 38 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 21% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 54%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | FC Kharkiv 1.85. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Kryvbas KR dominate the H2H record, yet FC Kharkiv are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 60% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Girnyk • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 21% | Draw 25% | FC Kharkiv 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.21 / FC Kharkiv 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.970 / def 1.469 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.198 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
2.01
FC Kharkiv xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Wednesday 25 November 2026 at Girnyk.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Girnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 21% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
Record (6 meetings): Kryvbas KR 4W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (0.97) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
21%
4.84
25%
3.95
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
3.22
2.01
FC Kharkiv xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
3%
36.07
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 2.01 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 11D 12L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.84 PPG from 37 outings (19W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 1.72 points per game from 18 outings (8W 7D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.41 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 14W 11D 12L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 19W 11D 7L in their last 37 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.44 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 4, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 67%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Kryvbas KR) and 39% (FC Kharkiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 39%; FC Kharkiv in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kryvbas KR's games and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Kryvbas KR's matches and 39% of FC Kharkiv's.
Do Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.