Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Ruh Lviv travel to Stadion Kolos to take on Kolos Kovalivka. The game is scheduled for Monday 7 April 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kolos Kovalivka stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka at Stadion Kolos this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kolos Kovalivka 0.90 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kolos Kovalivka, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 31% versus Ruh Lviv 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 19% | Ruh Lviv 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.77 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.726 / defence 1.051 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.927 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 0.878. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Kolos Kovalivka games / 52 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 35%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Ruh Lviv 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Kolos Kovalivka's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 40% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Monday 7 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.77 / Ruh Lviv 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.726 / def 1.051 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.927 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.185 / away 0.878 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ruh Lviv xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 7 April 2025 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 30% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv?
Record (6 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 2W | Draws 3 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kolos Kovalivka's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.31
35%
2.87
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.63
0.86
Ruh Lviv xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.23
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 16.8 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.3%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.86 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 20D 21L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 18W 21D 13L from 52 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ruh Lviv are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kolos Kovalivka.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (4W 12D 10L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 10D 6L from 26 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.27 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 11W 20D 21L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 18W 21D 13L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 0.92 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
4
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 27%, Ruh Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Kolos Kovalivka and 35% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 38%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 58% of games; Ruh Lviv in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 35% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Kolos Kovalivka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-1 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.77 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.73 / defence 1.05 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 35%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 19%, Ruh Lviv 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.