Karpaty 1-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karpaty at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Karpaty host Obolon'-Brovar at Stadion Ukraina in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Karpaty — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karpaty's home record at Stadion Ukraina: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Karpaty are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Karpaty in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 70% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 50% versus Obolon'-Brovar 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karpaty 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.41 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 0.855 / defence 1.149 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.633 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.121. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Karpaty's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Karpaty games / 40 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karpaty 50% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 21%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.76. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Karpaty 60% | Obolon'-Brovar 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Ukraina • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 50% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Karpaty 1.41 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 0.855 / def 1.149 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.633 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Obolon'-Brovar xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadion Ukraina.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Karpaty 1 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukraina.
What competition is Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 50% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Karpaty (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Karpaty's attack at 0.85x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Karpaty's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.39
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.22
0.81
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
5%
19.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Karpaty and 0.81 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Karpaty have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 3W 3D 4L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Karpaty are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Obolon'-Brovar.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Karpaty have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That actually lags their 1.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Obolon'-Brovar's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karpaty are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Karpaty's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 0.50 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Karpaty or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karpaty go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Karpaty won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karpaty's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Karpaty
1
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 4 meetings on record, Karpaty have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Karpaty 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 75%, Obolon'-Brovar 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karpaty) and 50% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karpaty play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Karpaty's recent matches and 0% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karpaty's recent games and 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Karpaty have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karpaty edge out Obolon'-Brovar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.41 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.63 / defence 1.41, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 50% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 21%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 50%, Obolon'-Brovar 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.