Kryvbas KR 3-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kryvbas KR face LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Stadion Hirnyk to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Kryvbas KR (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Kryvbas KR edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2024, ended Kryvbas KR 3–0 LNZ Cherkasy — a Kryvbas KR win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 44% versus LNZ Cherkasy 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 46% | LNZ Cherkasy 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.24 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.892 / defence 0.911 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.952 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.120. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kryvbas KR's projected output up. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 39 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 40.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 41% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 28%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.43 | Draw 3.21 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kryvbas KR's last 10 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 30% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 41% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Kryvbas KR 1.24 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.892 / def 0.911 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.952 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.97
LNZ Cherkasy xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy FAQs
What time does Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 41% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (0.89) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.95x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Kryvbas KR's last 39 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.21
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.21
0.97
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.97 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 39 games, going 21W 8D 10L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (15W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.44 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across their last 19 home games, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 19 away games (6W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.10 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kryvbas KR (Home) vs LNZ Cherkasy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kryvbas KR
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy Form FAQs
What form are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 21W 8D 10L in their last 39 games (1.82 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.84 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Kryvbas KR on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 42%, LNZ Cherkasy 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Kryvbas KR) and 37% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 47% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 37% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 63% of LNZ Cherkasy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat LNZ Cherkasy 3-1 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.24 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.97 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 41% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 28%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 46%, LNZ Cherkasy 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.82 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.