Veres Rivne 2-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Veres Rivne face Vorskla Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Veres Rivne's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Veres Rivne's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Vorskla Poltava's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Vorskla Poltava edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Veres Rivne 1–2 Vorskla Poltava — a Vorskla Poltava win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 60% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 48% | Vorskla Poltava 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.35 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.018 / defence 1.196 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.869 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.120. Data: built from Veres Rivne's last 40 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 40.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 40% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 31%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.50 | Draw 3.50 | Vorskla Poltava 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Veres Rivne 80% (last 10 home games) | Vorskla Poltava 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 40% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Veres Rivne 1.35 / Vorskla Poltava 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.018 / def 1.196 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.869 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vorskla Poltava xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava FAQs
What time does Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Veres Rivne 2 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 40% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 1.02x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.87x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Veres Rivne's last 40 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.50
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.51
1.16
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.16 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Veres Rivne come into this having played 40 games, going 9W 14D 17L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.05 PPG from 40 outings (11W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Veres Rivne against 1.05 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Veres Rivne's home form reads 6W 8D 7L across their last 21 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 21 away games (6W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.98 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Veres Rivne (Home) vs Vorskla Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Veres Rivne
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava Form FAQs
What form are Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 9W 14D 17L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 11W 9D 20L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.24 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vorskla Poltava won Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Veres Rivne on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Veres Rivne
3
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Veres Rivne have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: Vorskla Poltava 3-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 71%, Vorskla Poltava 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Veres Rivne) and 33% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Vorskla Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Veres Rivne's games and 43% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 33% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 62% of Vorskla Poltava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 11, as Veres Rivne and Vorskla Poltava drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.35 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.16 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.02 / defence 1.20 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 40% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 31%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 48%, Vorskla Poltava 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (40 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (40 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.02 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.