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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karpaty and Kudrivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty and Kudrivka finished level at 1-1 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.31 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Kudrivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 42% | Draw 28% | Kudrivka 30%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 45%, Kudrivka 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Kudrivka's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 0.95 PPG, Kudrivka 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Kudrivka (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights