🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zorya Luhansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kryvbas KR beat Zorya Luhansk 3-1 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.58 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.20 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 46% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 29%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, Zorya Luhansk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.57 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights