Kryvbas KR 3-1 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kolos Stadium plays host to Kryvbas KR versus Zorya Luhansk in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Zorya Luhansk (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Zorya Luhansk have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Zorya Luhansk managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2025, ended Kryvbas KR 3–2 Zorya Luhansk — a Kryvbas KR win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Kryvbas KR and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Zorya Luhansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 45% versus Zorya Luhansk 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 43% | Zorya Luhansk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.58 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.184 / defence 0.965 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.011 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.225. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 47 games and Zorya Luhansk's last 47.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 46% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 29%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.16 | Draw 4.02 | Zorya Luhansk 3.47. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Kryvbas KR 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 home games) | Zorya Luhansk 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 46% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Kryvbas KR 1.58 / Zorya Luhansk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.184 / def 0.965 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.011 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Zorya Luhansk xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk FAQs
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 1 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 46% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Zorya Luhansk's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Zorya Luhansk's attack (1.01x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Kryvbas KR's last 47 games and Zorya Luhansk's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.02
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.78
1.20
Zorya Luhansk xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.20 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 14D 13L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Zorya Luhansk sit at 1.36 PPG from 47 outings (18W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.36 for Zorya Luhansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 11W 6D 6L across their last 23 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Zorya Luhansk have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 23 away games (8W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 1.17 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Kryvbas KR (Home) vs Zorya Luhansk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk Form FAQs
What form are Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 20W 14D 13L in their last 47 games (1.57 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 18W 10D 19L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.70 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kryvbas KR have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won Kryvbas KR 3-0 Zorya Luhansk on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zorya Luhansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
0
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have won 7, Zorya Luhansk have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Zorya Luhansk 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 48%, Zorya Luhansk 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kryvbas KR) and 52% (Zorya Luhansk).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Zorya Luhansk in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Zorya Luhansk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 52% of Zorya Luhansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 52% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Zorya Luhansk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 70% of Zorya Luhansk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zorya Luhansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Zorya Luhansk 3-1 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.58 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.20 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 46% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 29%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, Zorya Luhansk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.57 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kryvbas KR win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.