Kryvbas KR 1-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Kryvbas KR welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Stadion Hirnyk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hirnyk this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Obolon'-Brovar away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kryvbas KR 1.20 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kryvbas KR, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Kryvbas KR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kryvbas KR 41% | Obolon'-Brovar 28%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 43% | Obolon'-Brovar 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.54 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.174 / defence 0.988 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.919 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.022. Data: 58 Kryvbas KR games / 58 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | Obolon'-Brovar 22%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.55. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | Obolon'-Brovar 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.54 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.174 / def 0.988 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.919 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Obolon'-Brovar xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Kryvbas KR 1 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 51% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (3 meetings): Kryvbas KR 2W | Draws 1 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.17x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.70
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.46
0.93
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
5%
21.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.93 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 29W 13D 16L from 58 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 26L across 58 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 15W 6D 8L from 29 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 6W 8D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 28%.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Current Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 29W 13D 16L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 13W 19D 26L in their last 58 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.76 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 4, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 41%, Obolon'-Brovar 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kryvbas KR) and 41% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 31% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 41% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Obolon'-Brovar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.54 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | Obolon'-Brovar 22%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, Obolon'-Brovar 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.